FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 93%
Non 93%Qualité du marché
33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,1 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
8
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This event predicts whether the United States will formally announce its withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- For this market, a qualifying announcement means a formal notification consistent with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official communications from the U.S. government, including statements by the President or formal diplomatic notifications.
- If the United States formally announces its withdrawal from NATO during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The mandatory one-year notice period does not need to conclude within the market period for a "Yes" resolution; only the formal announcement is required.
