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Données au 25 oct. 2026, 02:35 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 16%
December 31 16%Qualité du marché
27 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,8 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
15
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0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
This event predicts the date on which Delcy Rodríguez will permanently cease to exercise the powers of president (interim) of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.
- A permanent exit is defined as her resignation, dismissal, replacement through constitutional or extra-constitutional succession, or a loss of effective control over the presidency such that she no longer functions as the de facto head of the executive.
- Temporary absences, including travel, medical leave, or short-term delegation of duties, do not constitute a permanent exit.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) consists of either (i) an official declaration by Venezuelan state authorities (including the National Assembly, Supreme Tribunal of Justice, National Electoral Council, or Official Gazette) confirming that Rodríguez has vacated the presidency, or (ii) a clear and sustained international consensus reported by multiple major, editorially independent news organizations that Rodríguez has been removed from power or no longer exercises effective presidential authority, even if formal recognition by the incumbent regime is delayed.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive reality of power transfer over formalistic recognition, and Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation if a fair determination becomes impossible.