Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
0.2 pts (24h)ClimaQuarterly2m
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
No · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
—
Referencia guardada
No 95%
No 95%Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
624,9 €
Baja liquidezInterés abierto
1,6 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comentarios
2
Cambio 7d
-0.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
24 jul 26, 18:34 UTC31 dic 26, 16:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 0,1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- Sí
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · No
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
—
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
PolymarketMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries.
- Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
- Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
- Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET.