Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
1.5% (24h)One-OffMiddle East18d
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónProbabilidad implícita actualBahrain 36%+27.5%Líder entre 19 opciones
Calidad del mercado
73 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
32,4 mil €
Liquidez
107,9 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
6.0% / 9.0%
Spread
50.0%
Spread amplioCambio 7d
+0.5%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
22 may 26, 21:3630 jun 26, 0:00
Tendencias
Resultado elegido
Bahrain36%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.