Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
5.0 pts (24h)WeatherOne-Off3m
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
Florida 21%-21.0ptLíder entre 19 opciones
Calidad del mercado
39 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
426,1 €
Liquidez
4,9 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
15.0 pt
Spread amplioComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
18 ago 26, 20:31 UTC8 dic 26, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
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PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply.
- Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
- A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall.
- The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline.
- If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".