Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 78.8%
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 minutos
28 jul 26, 0:12 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
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PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?
Manifold MarketsWill 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketWill a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.