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  • Inicio
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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

One-OffRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
Sí
Sí 2%
Calidad del mercado

52 / 100

Calidad media
Volumen 24h

227,1 €

Liquidez

16 mil €

Liquidez media
Compra / Venta

2.1% / 2.3%

Spread

9.5%

Spread amplio
Cambio 7d

+1.1%

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 minutos

28 dic 25, 23:1230 jun 26, 0:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Yes2%

Reglas

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.

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Activos en estos temas

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Reglas

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.