PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Republican Party 93%Líder entre 8 opciones
Calidad del mercado
68 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
12,3 €
Liquidez
30,4 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoComments
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
28 ene 26, 21:363 nov 26, 0:00
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Reglas
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Comparacion de fuentes de prediccion
- También disponible en Kalshi — IA-04 House winner? · Chris McGowan 90%
Mercados abiertos
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+3.0pt18.9%
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.2%
+44 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 163 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 919,3 mil €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+0.9pt23%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.4pt14%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt11%
+125 resultados más
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt23%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt15%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt15%
+125 resultados más
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- Golf / Golfer / Golfing99%
- Sleepy Joe99%
- Kamala99%
+28 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 582,1 mil €
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+4.0pt63.3%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt28.4%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 12,7 M €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- J.D. Vance47%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
+125 resultados más
- Volumen total
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de IA-04 House Election Winner?
- Polymarket cotiza Republican Party al 93% a fecha de 24 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve IA-04 House Election Winner?
- Está previsto que IA-04 House Election Winner se resuelva el 3 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida IA-04 House Election Winner?
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- ¿Dónde más está listado IA-04 House Election Winner?
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Kalshi.