Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 94.6%
Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado23 oct 24, 23:37 UTC24 oct 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsIs Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
KalshiWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
- Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
- What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes.
- I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
- I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
- Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
Mercados abiertos
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.4pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 936 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 714,5 mil €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 resultados más
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $77,000 or above98%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 567,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 564,3 mil €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $79,365.65 target
- No84%
- Yes16%
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 482,8 mil €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $78,700 or above99%
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,600 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 403 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 382,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,2 M €
- What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Está previsto que Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? se resuelva el 24 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.