Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 66.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado7 ene 23, 7:06 UTC1 ene 00, 8:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
In order to count as "full self driving", it must be at least as safe as a normal, reasonably cautious human driver averaging over all situations, proportional to their likelyhood.
- In other words, assuming I'm an average driver (and not drunk, etc.) and am not irrationally scared of self-driving cars, I would feel no less safe saying "drive from my house in Florida to this hotel in Atlanta" than I would doing the drive myself.
- Must be available to the public, but doesn't have to be cheap.
- In order to count as "self-sustaining fusion", it needs to either:
- Actually be self-sustaining; i.e. they could turn off power to the reactor and it would keep going.
- Output no less electricity than it took in, even if that electricity is not what's being used to power the reactor.
