Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 65.3%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
17 sept 26, 4:52 UTC30 abr 27, 4:51 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump say in September?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during his Rose Garden dinner?
KalshiReglas
Los criterios de resolución aún no están disponibles para este mercado. Las próximas actualizaciones completarán esta sección cuando se hayan guardado las reglas de la fuente.
Mercados abiertos
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.9%
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt45.1%
- 25 bps decrease-1.9pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,7 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.2pt93%
- Yes+2.2pt7%
- Volumen total
- 18,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 551,6 mil €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Volumen total
- 27,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 549,5 mil €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 resultados más
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-5.0pt39%
- Before Dec 1, 202631.7%
- Before Nov 1, 202617.9%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 462,4 mil €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt56%
- D-House, R-Senate32%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt11%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 12,9 M €
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
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- Nebraska Senate winner?
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- Will the SAVE Act become law?
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- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Maine Senate winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will trump say or write "effective altruism"??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 65% a fecha de 17 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will trump say or write "effective altruism"??
- Está previsto que Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? se resuelva el 30 de abril de 2027.