Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 51.6%
Pronosticadores
91
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado6 feb 24, 10:41 UTC1 ene 31, 15:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a single-person unicorn before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
The outcome is true if by the end of 2030 a public company achieves the market cap of 1 billion dollars while having only one funder and employee.
- Or a one-person private company raises enough money that places it at a valuation above 1B, reported in a reputable news source.
- https://fortune.com/2024/02/04/sam-altman-one-person-unicorn-silicon-valley-founder-myth/
- For the purpose of this market and to ensure that the company is not just a scam,with "enough money" we mean over 10$ million.
- Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Employee is meant in the legal sense.
- External consultants/contractors are allowed and do not count as employees.
Mercados abiertos
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 180,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 180,1 mil €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt57.6%
- 65-89+13.0pt34.3%
- 90-114+0.5pt4%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt97%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet+0.1pt1%
+6 resultados más
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 182,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 60,4 mil €
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030??
- Está previsto que Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The outcome is true if by the end of 2030 a public company achieves the market cap of 1 billion dollars while having only one funder and employee.