Will the US Senate's Filibuster rule be in place as-is on February 20th, 2027?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 82.8%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado1 nov 25, 19:56 UTC20 feb 27, 15:34 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market resolves Yes if the rules of the senate are in their current (November 1st, 2025) position as of February 20th, 2027.
- If the nuclear option is used to change or suspend the rule in between now and then, this market can still resolve Yes if the old normal is formally re-asserted before resolution.
- This market is concerned with the rule as it applies to general acts of congress, not to previously expanded executive and SCOTUS nominations.
- That said, those partial reductions in the rule would be enough for a No resolution had this market covered those time periods.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments!
- Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for partial carve-outs counting as material changes (resolving No):
