Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 23 oct 2026, 1:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 83%
Sí 83%Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 23 minutos
28 abr 23, 13:55 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market will resolve to yes if the US establishes by 2028 a policy requiring certain kinds of AI incident reporting, similar to requirements in aviation or data breach reporting.
- The policy may allow for many incidents to be kept confidential within a regulatory body.
- The goal is to enable regulators to track specific types of harms and near-misses from AI systems, allowing them to identify dangers and quickly develop mitigation strategies.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
