Will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals with power to block frontier AI releases, before 2030?
One-OffIARegulaciónTecnología3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 51.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 49 minutos
Retrasado6 sept 26, 10:25 UTC1 ene 30, 5:00 UTC
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Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, the United States enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force).
- Voluntary commitments, guidance without blocking authority, or state laws without frontier-release blocking power do not count.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
- Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.
