Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?
Eventos corporativosIAOne-OffRegulaciónNegocios y empresas3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualIF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban) 60%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado13 sept 26, 23:16 UTC1 ene 30, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
roon (OpenAI), Sep 12 2026: "i won't lie to you, i think open source will be banned before too long after some major disaster. and when the day comes, you'll agree with me. i hope kimi and deepseek etc keep making models but keep them monitored on an api where they should be."
- A reply argued the ban is what closed labs need: they're unprofitable, need to IPO, and need the government to hand them a monopoly via regulation.
- This market tests both claims.
- Answers are independent and resolve separately.
- Answer 1: the named outcome
- Resolves YES if, on or before Dec 31, 2029, the US federal government enacts a statute, executive order, or final agency rule that prohibits the public release of model weights for general-purpose AI models, either outright or above a capability/compute threshold.
