Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 16:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual2044 6.8%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado9 abr 26, 18:05 UTC31 dic 48, 18:53 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" for a specific election year option if Pope Leo XIV formally registers as a candidate for the office of President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
- If Leo XIV (born Robert Prevost in Chicago, 1955) resigned, returned to the US, and ran (e.g., in 2028), he meets Article II requirements (natural-born citizen, 35+, 14-year residency).
- No precedent exists, but it’s legally possible post-resignation.