¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the party with the most seats supply the prime minister after the 2026 NZ Election??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 61.8% a fecha de 21 de octubre de 2026.

Will the party with the most seats supply the prime minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 61.8%

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Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 22 minutos

12 ago 26, 16:29 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

resolves yes if the party that wins the most seats supplies the prime minister after the 2026 nz election.

If tie for most seats, resolves YES if one of them supplies the prime minister.
If a PM cant be decided after the 2026 Nov 7 election, and a new election is called, this will resolve based on the results from the second election (or whichever subsequent election is the final one before a PM is decided)
(Identical market to: source market)