Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 80.8%
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21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado1 jul 22, 19:52 UTC8 nov 28, 4:59 UTC
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[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by July 2028?
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Kalshi2028 popular vote margin of victory?
KalshiReglas
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
- The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome.
- As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia.
- These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force.
- (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact )
- On election day 2028, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES.
Mercados abiertos
Politics
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 81% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election??
- Está previsto que How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election? se resuelva el 8 de noviembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.