Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 89.6%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado28 dic 23, 9:26 UTC1 ene 31, 22:59 UTC
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This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.
- The identification must meet the following criteria:
- Scientific Validation: The identification of extraterrestrial intelligence as an artificial intelligence must be reported in at least one peer-reviewed scientific publication in a journal of significant academic recognition.
- The publication should be in fields such as astrobiology, astronomy, artificial intelligence, or related scientific disciplines.
- High-impact journals like ‘Nature’, ‘Science’, or similar status publications are preferable.
- Confirmation by Expert Panels or Authorities: The identification must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two expert panels or recognized authorities in the fields of extraterrestrial research, artificial intelligence, or space exploration.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030??
- Está previsto que Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.