Will the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 202630d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 81%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado29 oct 26, 5:44 UTC1 dic 26, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsWill Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExSullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
PolymarketAlaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market is binary and resolves based on whether the presence of candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. demonstrably changes the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election according to official tabulated results from the Alaska Division of Elections.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to YES if the following conditions is satisfied:
- Ranked-Choice / Margin Outcome: Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan does not win the election, AND the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. exceed the final margin of victory between the winning candidate and Dan S. Sullivan
- If incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan wins re-election, or if Mary Peltola (or another challenger) wins by a margin greater than the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without an election reversal via court order, the market will resolve to NO.
- Note: The market creator may modify or clarify the numerical threshold or specific counterfactual definition before election day.