Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 21:13 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 59.6%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado2 feb 24, 5:44 UTC2 ene 50, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.0°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050
- Resolves negative otherwise
- https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
- If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
- The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
- So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.01°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.0°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.
