¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 53.3% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050??

Está previsto que Will the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2050.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 53.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 15 horas

Desactualizado

5 feb 24, 18:13 UTC2 ene 50, 7:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.2°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.21°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.2°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.