Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?
CriptoOne-OffRegulaciónMaterias primasExchanges1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 56.6%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado15 jun 26, 21:39 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially clears, registers, or issues an order/regulatory relief that permits U.S. residents to legally trade on Polymarket's primary, on-chain global exchange (polymarket.com), OR if Polymarket officially removes the U.S. geoblock/IP restriction from its main global platform pursuant to such CFTC clearance.
- This market resolves to NO if, by the deadline, U.S. residents remain geoblocked/restricted from trading on the main, global, on-chain exchange, even if they are permitted to trade on a separate, domestic, intermediated platform (such as Polymarket US / QCX LLC).
- Source of truth: The resolution will be verified using official filings and press releases from the CFTC, official announcements from Polymarket, or reports from reputable financial media outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, or The Wall Street Journal).
- Following a January 2022 settlement with the CFTC over operating an unregistered facility, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine and agreed to geoblock U.S. residents from its main on-chain platform.
- In late 2025, Polymarket acquired QCEX (comprising QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC), securing CFTC approval to operate "Polymarket US" as an intermediated Designated Contract Market (DCM).
