¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 52.2% a fecha de 29 de octubre de 2026.

Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years?

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Sí 52.2%

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Actualizado hace 11 horas

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4 feb 26, 17:05 UTC1 ene 31, 16:55 UTC

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Over the last 5-6 years, there has been a remarkable increase in the number of space launches, highly reminiscent of a typical exponential curve:

[image]On average since 2020, the yearly growth rate was at about 25%, with some variance (from ~18.5% to ~32% YoY), which resulted in more than 3x increase from 104 in 2020 to 317 in 2025
I'm interested to see whether or not the same trend will continue for the next 5 years
This will resolve yes if in year 2030 the number of successful (not total!) orbital space launches will triple compared to 2025, i.e. will be at least 951.
The source will be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_spaceflight, but if this page will stop reporting accurate data, i will find alternative sources on launch statistics
(as a small bonus: i will tip 250 mana to the person who will suggest the best name for this "law", purely subjective of course)