Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
IATecnología2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualN = 100 100%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
100
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-0.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado2 jun 25, 20:08 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:
- A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft.
- It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.
- The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.
- A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.