Pronóstico comunitario actual
Raise by >5% 64.2%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 23 horas
Desactualizado1 abr 24, 0:04 UTC2 ene 00, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Fed raise interest rates in 2027?
Manifold MarketsECB Interest Rates: September 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: September 2026
LimitlessReglas
Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
- Baseline: Average of the 10-yr real interest rate.
- I will average the rate over the year preceding the release of Strong AI.
- I will then average the same rate, starting one year after the release of said strong AI.
- This resolves at T + 2 yr after the release of strong AI.
- Will extend indefinitely.
Mercados abiertos
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 35 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 resultados más
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 resultados más
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Raise by >5% al 64% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Está previsto que Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y