Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 71.8%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado1 ago 26, 14:44 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.
- Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
- Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
- Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
- If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
- YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.
Mercados abiertos
Business & Corporate
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 351,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 351,4 mil €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 resultados más
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 resultados más
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,7 mil €
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 resultados más
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 72% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Está previsto que Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: [tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.