Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 53%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado20 jun 26, 9:17 UTC4 nov 26, 12:25 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiWill September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsHeadline PCE inflation in Aug 2026
KalshiCore PCE MoM - August 2026
PolymarketCore PCE YoY - August 2026
PolymarketHow much will core PCE increase in Aug 2026?
KalshiReglas
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution.
- If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by December 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["PCE inflation markets for earlier reference months are prior-reference-month markets, not September 2026 duplicates.", "September 2026 headline PCE inflation uses the all-items PCE price index, while this market excludes food and energy.", "September 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
Mercados abiertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,6 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 554,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 33,8 mil €
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 79,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,6 mil €
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 53% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Está previsto que Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? se resuelva el 4 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.