Will Republicans lose the house in 2026 midterm elections?
PolíticaOne-OffElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 2026Política de EE. UU.Elección1m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 96%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 29 minutos
3 nov 26, 2:57 UTC31 dic 26, 11:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Democrats lose the house in the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill GOP redistricting help Republicans win the house in 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsShould I expect Democrats to win back the house in 2026 midterm election?
Manifold MarketsRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
PolymarketHow many House Republicans will lose reelection in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party wins fewer seats than the threshold required to maintain majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives (fewer than 218 seats in the standard 435-seat chamber), or if another party or coalition organizes the majority when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027.
- This market resolves to NO if the Republican Party retains majority control by winning at least 218 seats (or otherwise organizes the majority for the 120th Congress).
- Resolution will be determined primarily by official election results and consensus race calls by major news organizations (such as the Associated Press Decision Editor), or upon the official election of the Speaker of the House by a non-Republican majority for the 120th Congress.
- If control is delayed due to recounts or runoffs, resolution will wait until majority control of the chamber is definitively established.
- Midterm elections historically present headwinds for the sitting president's party in Congress.