Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
One-OffUS PoliticsPolítica2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95%
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130
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 9 minutos
9 nov 24, 19:16 UTC2 nov 28, 6:59 UTC
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FutuurReglas
This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.
- If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are happy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely impactful, vastly outweighs any harms, and was more sizable than what other post WWII presidents have accomplished, then I will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, NO.
- EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).
- Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Majority Requirement Clarification:
- A majority of prominent rationalists must hold the view that Trump’s second term was the most positively impactful since 1960.
