Will OpenAI or Anthropic file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2027?
Eventos corporativosOne-OffIA11m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 oct 2026, 14:32 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.8%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado13 sept 26, 12:42 UTC30 sept 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if either OpenAI or Anthropic files for bankruptcy (Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 in the US, or an equivalent insolvency proceeding elsewhere) before September 30, 2027.
- Fire sales, acquisitions, restructurings, or down rounds that do not involve a formal insolvency filing resolve NO.
- The entity means the main company and its principal operating subsidiaries as of September 2026.
- Context: a friend claimed on September 13, 2026 that absent regulatory capture, OpenAI or Anthropic will go bankrupt within a year.
- I don't buy it.
- Making the market so we can bet on it.
