Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 76.8%
Pronosticadores
82
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado2 nov 22, 19:43 UTC2 dic 29, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
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KalshiReglas
At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies.
- I will try to determine the total number of such cars that use some form of LIDAR, and if more than half do, this resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Update for detail: What I am going for here is the sort of vehicles that Tesla, Waymo, Cruise etc. are making.
- Vehicles that are ostensibly designed to drive themselves (even if in terms of software, they might not be able to do that yet with 100% reliability).
- In terms of the level system, this maps on to about L3 and above.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 802,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volumen total
- 736,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 585,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
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- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 resultados más
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 77% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR??
- Está previsto que Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR? se resuelva el 2 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies.