Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualOther harms 100%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado21 mar 26, 1:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
KalshiReglas
From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.
- A commonly cited example are supposed "assassination markets" which could result in traders committing murder in order to win a bet.
- This is one way "the named outcome" could resolve.
- This market is a twin to this market on Insider Trading harms.
- The primary difference between the two is that Insider Trading denotes important figures involved with the resolution in some manner, trading in accordance.
- By contrast, Market Manipulation is done by random traders, who can be reasonably presumed at the time of market creation to have little to no relevant sway on the resolution.
Mercados abiertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.6pt92%
- Yes+1.6pt8%
- Volumen total
- 18,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 260,8 mil €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+11.0pt22.9%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt21.1%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+9.0pt21.1%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt87%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,+2.0pt80%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt87%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt84%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- Before Jan 1, 202895%
- Before Sep 1, 2027-1.0pt57%
- Before April 1, 2027+4.0pt50%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 58-0.5pt10%
- Above 60+0.5pt10%
- Above 62-1.0pt9%
+5 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Other harms al 100% a fecha de 17 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.