Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualOther harms 100%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 20 minutos
21 mar 26, 1:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.
- A commonly cited example are supposed "assassination markets" which could result in traders committing murder in order to win a bet.
- This is one way "the named outcome" could resolve.
- This market is a twin to this market on Insider Trading harms.
- The primary difference between the two is that Insider Trading denotes important figures involved with the resolution in some manner, trading in accordance.
- By contrast, Market Manipulation is done by random traders, who can be reasonably presumed at the time of market creation to have little to no relevant sway on the resolution.