¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87.1% a fecha de 25 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038??

Está previsto que Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2037.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados

Datos del 25 oct 2026, 23:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 87.1%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 horas

Desactualizado

4 jul 25, 2:13 UTC31 dic 37, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron begins a third term as President of France before January 1, 2040.
The term must be officially recognized and commenced within this timeframe.
Verification will be based on official announcements from the French government or reputable news sources.
As of July 2025, Emmanuel Macron is serving his second consecutive term as President of France, which began in May 2022 and is set to conclude in 2027.
The French Constitution, amended in 2008, limits the president to two consecutive five-year terms.