Will Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory be overturned before 2029?
PolíticaOne-OffElecciónAmérica Latina2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 92%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 36 minutos
26 oct 26, 14:52 UTC31 dic 28, 11:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Who will publicly congratulate/acknowledge Lula as the winner of the Brazil election before the end of October?
Manifold MarketsCOND. Who will publicly congratulate/acknowledge Lula as the winner of the Brazil election before the end of October?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by which date?
PolymarketPetrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term?
FutuurReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2029 (23:59:59 UTC), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is officially overturned, annulled, or invalidated by an authorized Brazilian constitutional authority—specifically Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral - TSE), the Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal - STF), or a formal decree of nullification by the National Congress—such that Lula is legally stripped of the presidency or prevented from taking office due to the cancellation or reversal of the 2026 election outcome.
- This market resolves to NO if:
- Legal challenges requesting the annulment or overturning of the 2026 presidential election are rejected, dismissed, or fail to invalidate the result before January 1, 2029.
- Lula remains in office under the 2026 election mandate through December 31, 2028.
- Lula vacates office for ordinary, non-electoral reasons (e.g., standard impeachment for crimes committed in office, resignation, medical incapacitation, or death) without an official legal ruling invalidating or overturning the 2026 election result itself.
