Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
ChinaOne-OffIASalud y medicina7a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 61.6%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 21 horas
Desactualizado27 may 23, 23:08 UTC2 may 34, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
On May 1 2034 I will identify the top LLM assistant from OpenAI available for <100$ a month and run the following question five independent times and average the results.
- If the average estimate from the five outlets is over 60% the claim resolves true.
- If openAI has no suitable model I'll find the best similar model.
- I'll do this from the US as a US citizen.
- Here is the prompt
- Please reply with JSON following the template, for each type of media: New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Guardian UK, China's People's Daily.
