Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 95.7%
Pronosticadores
25
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado24 ago 26, 0:37 UTC24 feb 27, 0:33 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct?
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KalshiReglas
Tweet thread for context:
- [tweet]For this to resolve YES, the original proof does not need to be perfect.
- It is not uncommon for there to be minor (and easily fixable) mistakes in a long technical proof.
- The key question is whether they are "easily fixable".
- This can resolve NO as soon as the proof is demonstrated to be substantially incorrect and there has been a reasonable enough wait time to ensure that there isn't some "easy fix" to address the issue.
- Otherwise, I plan to resolve this YES if it has been 6 months after market creation and academic consensus appears to believe the proof.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
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- Yes-0.9pt3%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 96% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up??
- Está previsto que Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? se resuelva el 24 de febrero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Tweet thread for context: