Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 88.6%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado18 feb 25, 11:17 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
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PolymarketNext General Election Conservative Leader - Kemi Badenoch
SmarketsWill Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsNext Conservative Leader - After Kemi Badenoch
SmarketsWill Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.
- If a VoNC does not happen, or a vote is triggered but does not take place before 1st Jan 2027, this resolves NO.
- According to current party rules, no VoNC can take place before the party leader has been in place for a full year, meaning a VoNC cannot take place before November 2025, so this covers a period of a little over a year after VoNC season starts.
- Clarification: if the party rules are amended to allow a VoNC then this will count for a YES resolution.
- The key part is the vote occurring, not any rule changes to enable it.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.