Will Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Trump’s Tuesday 8pm ET ultimatum?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolíticaMiddle EastManifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: No (99%)
Resuelto: 10 ago 2026, 16:35
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 99%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 días
Desactualizado4 ago 26, 13:4410 ago 26, 16:35
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Reglas
Market context: Bloomberg reported that President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 p.m.
- The market is not about whether the Bloomberg story is real; it is about whether Iran actually complies with the ultimatum by reopening the strait before the deadline.
- Bloomberg’s reporting framed the demand as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, so the market should resolve only on a clear, reported reopening or formal agreement to reopen.
- Resolution criteria: YES if, by 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz or has formally agreed to reopen it in accordance with Trump’s ultimatum.
