Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 50 minutos
Retrasado19 ene 24, 5:56 UTC1 jul 28, 6:59 UTC
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Will he have been working at openAI in this period, that is, attending meetings, performing duties, working on code, reading and reporting on things, interviewing, or any other similar duty which someone like him might do in a managerial or individual contributor way or any other way.
- This does not refer to self-directed, personal, private, non-shared work which he might be doing on his own using all his own private resources, hardware, and software, without regular sharing with / review by / consultation with OpenAI staff.
- So these would not count: a private project or idea he is exploring, invented by himself, which may later on be shared w/OpenAI but which he isn't talking to them about now.
- This is related to the question of what he was doing on Feb 1 2024; it may come too late to help resolution there, but at least will let us look back on this and know something, if enough information comes out to resolve this market.
- This will stay open through mid 2028 in the hopes that someone writes a biography or an interview comes out which reveals whether or not he was actually "working for OpenAI" in the most colloquial sense, i.e. directly working for and at the company regardless of contract / legal status.
- If he was doing this type of thing in a committed and full way, i.e. as a regular employee without any prohibitions (like: I'll join meetings but I won't speak up; I'll do reviews but not write code; etc.; he has to be a full-on employee) for at least 3 working days in that period (or we have confirmation he was full-on working, but the exact day count is unclear, but reasonable to believe it was at least 3 days) then this can YES.
