Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 50%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado26 mar 26, 15:14 UTC30 sept 26, 15:09 UTC
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KalshiReglas
I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.
- By September 2026, will I regret having done AFFINE instead of just finals (100%) or not having committed to AFFINE fully? (0%).
- It is noteworthy that AFFINE will likely have a year-long extension for 10 potential promising ASI alignment researchers, out of ~30.
- My chance is lower by committing less.
- Similarly, I may have worse final exam results, but the consequences of this don't seem very clear, given I don't care much which university I go to.
- If I regret nothing, that would be great and id just pick the one I'm closer to regretting.
Mercados abiertos
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.9 million89%
+5 resultados más
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- 18 mil €
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- 5,9 mil €
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- No94%
- Yes6%
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- 799,2 €
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- No+0.1pt99%
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- 558,3 €
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- No94%
- Yes6%
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- 522,5 €
- Volumen 24h
- 522,5 €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will I regret AFFINE or school??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 50% a fecha de 17 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will I regret AFFINE or school??
- Está previsto que Will I regret AFFINE or school? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will I regret AFFINE or school??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.