Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 30 oct 2026, 4:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 53.3%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado30 jul 26, 17:35 UTC1 sept 28, 23:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
I'm broadly an index-fund investor, but both of the times I've believed particularly strongly that I should buy a particular stock at a particular moment (Nvidia after the Deepseek moment, SK Hynix yesterday), it seems to have worked out well for me.
- I've invested a bit in other individual stocks and I'm sure I've beaten the market overall with those as well but during my time investing it has largely been a bull market so I don't put much stock (heh) in that.
- From market close 08/28/26 to market close 09/01/28 I will track the performance of the S&P 500 vs the performance of my non-index investments, expressed in annual average return.
- This market resolves NO if the former offers a better return over that time, YES if the latter does.
- The title refers to individual stock trading, but if I decide at some point to trade options or invest in other assets, their performance would be included as well.
- I will include cash-on-hand that is not part of my checking account or emergency fund as part of my non-index investments for calculating return purposes.
