Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 56.2%
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3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado18 jun 26, 22:58 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.
- As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.
- Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.
- Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026 Otherwise Resolves NO
- Some useful context:
- I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.
Mercados abiertos
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 342,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 91,2 mil €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 182,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 90,8 mil €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 resultados más
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 264,6 mil €
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 84,3 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 56% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year??
- Está previsto que Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.