Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
IAOne-OffMaterias primas2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 58 minutos
Retrasado4 mar 24, 13:06 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
The resolution criteria I'll use is:
- Yes: I get evidence that I could give the best version of GPT-5 an image of a series of IMO questions, and get gold-medal level answers with minimal prompt engineering
- No: I get evidence that the best version of GPT-5 scores cannot be reasonably expected to demonstrate gold-medal level performance
- If there are credible reports of it scoring at a gold-medal level on the 2024, 2025, or 2026 IMO questions, I will consider this to be enough evidence to resolve this market as Yes.
- Given this is not my area of expertise I'll be open to suggestions in modifying this criteria, and will be clear about my intentions.
- GPT-5 definition:
