Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 90.3%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado27 ago 24, 13:42 UTC1 ene 30, 18:29 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will an individual or governmental entity conduct a geoengineering project to lower global temperatures by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill average global temperatures rise to 2.0 Celsius above pre-industrial baseline within 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
KalshiWill average world temperatures exceed average temperatures of the Eemian interglacial 110k years ago, by 2070?
Manifold MarketsAverage global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
FutuurIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves based on the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly reported by NASA’s GISTEMP v4 dataset.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the annual global temperature anomaly is ≥ +1.5°C relative to the 1850–1900 (pre-industrial) baseline in any single calendar year from 2024 through 2030 (inclusive).
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- No Early Resolution
- This market will NOT resolve early, even if the threshold is reached before 2030.
