Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 81.2%
No 81.2%Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado17 ene 24, 0:29 UTC2 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
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Will global peak oil production occur before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsTexas crude oil production in 2026
KalshiU.S. oil production per day in 2026
KalshiReglas
Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2026 and 2027 from a peak in or before the year 2025, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2025.
- Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2025 levels in 2026 or 2027.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
- "Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline.
- It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
- [image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html
