Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 87.1%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado3 jul 24, 20:12 UTC1 ene 51, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization
- For the purposes of this market, an "extraterrestrial civilization" is defined as any organized society or community originating from outside Earth that displays one or more of the following characteristics:
- Technological Artifacts: Objects or signals clearly created by non-human intelligence, such as advanced machinery, spacecraft, or artificial structures.
- Communication Signals: Radio, laser, or other forms of communication that unmistakably originate from an intelligent source.
- Biological Evidence: Life forms or biological signatures that demonstrate complex, organized life processes indicative of a developed society.
- Astrosocial Phenomena: Observable large-scale alterations or structures within a star system or galaxy that suggest the presence of an advanced society, such as Dyson spheres or large space habitats.
Mercados abiertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 103,1 mil €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volumen total
- 57,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 57,4 mil €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
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- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
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- Volumen total
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- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volumen total
- 817,9 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050??
- Está previsto que Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2051.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization