Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 95.7%
Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado14 mar 23, 4:34 UTC1 ene 43, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
Manifold MarketsWho will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
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KalshiReglas
Person of the Year (called Man of the Year or Woman of the Year until 1999) is an annual issue of the United States news magazine and website Time featuring a person, a group, an idea, or an object that "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year".
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year
- This market resolves to YES if Eliezer wins the prize at or before the 2042 edition.
- Other markets
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042??
- Está previsto que Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2043.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Person of the Year (called Man of the Year or Woman of the Year until 1999) is an annual issue of the United States news magazine and website Time featuring a person, a group, an idea, or an object that "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year".