Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 91.2%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado13 ago 26, 23:51 UTC28 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump lives to have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- John Quincy Adams' Lifespan: 29,446 days (born July 11, 1767; died February 23, 1848), which is exactly 80 years and 227 days.
- Donald Trump's Lifespan: Born on June 14, 1946, Trump will have lived 29,447 days—officially surpassing Adams—if he is alive on January 27, 2027.
- Resolution Rule: If Donald Trump is confirmed alive at any point on January 27, 2027 (in his local time zone), this market resolves to YES.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams??
- Está previsto que Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? se resuelva el 28 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria